Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
Brokers like Vasudevan are struggling to keep themselves in tune with this super-informed, new-generation retail investor.
Williams driver Alex Albon has expressed his support for India's efforts to bring Formula One back to the country, stating it would be 'fantastic' and he would be 'excited' to be part of it.
'A breakout above 158,000 to 160,000 could trigger the next leg higher toward 165,000 to 170,000.'
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
'If an investor is ready to stay put for the next five years, one can consider investing in mid- and small-cap funds, but through SIPs.'
'Long-term investors seeking sustainable gains from resilient, fundamentally strong companies may go for these funds.'
Indian equity markets experienced a significant downturn as geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising oil prices, and foreign fund outflows dampened investor confidence. The Sensex and Nifty both fell sharply in early trade, reflecting broader global market weakness.
'We expect modest returns in 2026 versus the steep gains seen over the past few years.'
The Nifty 50 index could rise around 24 per cent from current levels to 32,032 by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, Kotak Securities said in a recent note. "We value Nifty at a 10 per cent premium (at 22x) to the 10-year average price-to-earnings of 20x on 2027-28 estimated (E) earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 1,456, and arrive at a December 2026 Nifty target of 32,032," the analysts wrote.
There are vexing questions around the disconnect between Nifty returns and portfolio returns, between economic growth and earnings growth, and finally, between earnings growth and market returns, points out Debashis Basu.
Every investor loves a bull market - that feeling of watching portfolios rise and headlines being filled with record highs is gratifying. Yet, wealth creation in the stock market is not just a matter of market rallies. Some of the most successful investors make their fortunes in periods of slow or even negative market momentum. The secret is mindset, strategy, and disciplined investing, not chasing short-term rallies.
The gold and silver holdings of domestic mutual funds (MFs) crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark for the first time in September, powered by a blistering commodity rally that lifted precious metal prices and drew fresh inflows into dedicated MF schemes.
'India may never fully participate in the AI hype cycle, but we can position ourselves to benefit from its inevitable disenchantment and the cycle of disillusionment,' alerts Akash Prakash.
A substantial fluctuation is likely because for a long period gold has moved in a narrow range of $ 50-60 and at higher levels short positions were built.
Jane Street could do what they did because of the most fundamental flaw in the Indian stock market: a fragmented, fractured, fissured, fistula-ed liquidity stream, points out Shankar Sharma.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Several brokerage houses have given a year-end target of as high as 30,000 for the BSE bourse's benchmark Sensex, with fund managers telling investors not to redeem though the index is still only around 25,000.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Nitin Narkhede your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
'Reduce your equity allocation, put that allocation into gold and fixed income.'
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
'Trade deal will act as a strong trigger for market sentiment, not just for domestic investors but also for FIIs.'
'...a mix of asset classes.' 'Include equities for growth (across market caps), debt for stability and liquidity, gold as a hedge against macro and currency risk, and global assets for geographical and economic diversification.'
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies eroded by Rs 9,40,581.75 crore to Rs 4,50,61,658.60 crore (USD 4.90 trillion) in a single day.
Experts tell Ujjval Jauhari that investors need to be careful in picking stocks given high valuations and with markets possibly ignoring potential risks
'A price of $6,600/oz is now a reasonable target for gold.'
'For the initial decade, I consistently advise young professionals to prioritise career development and income growth rather than market analysis.'
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped the most by 5.54 per cent, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank. However, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
The sharp surge in investment accounts (folios) in midcap and smallcap mutual funds (MF) in recent months is likely driven by the do-it-yourself (DIY) investors. In the first five months of the present financial year (FY 2024), net folio additions in direct MF plans (4.5 million) has outpaced that in regular plans (3.9 million), contrary to the trend seen in the previous three six-month periods. The net folio additions in direct plans in the five-month period (April-August 2023) is 40 per cent higher than the total additions made in the previous six month period.
Finance minister Arun Jaitley has delivered a Arun Jaitley delivered a bold, far sighted budget
'If nominal growth improves and earnings pick up, Indian stock markets could see a rally next year.'
The post-Covid euphoria surrounding direct equity investing has ebbed in 2025. Individual investors have turned net sellers in the domestic equity market, pulling out about 8,461 crore so far this year - a sharp reversal from the record purchases seen in 2024, according to a report by the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
Retail investors have been the hardest hit in the recent market downturn, with stocks where they hold over 20% falling 45% from their 52-week highs.
Crude oil prices have more than doubled, pushing up India's import bill and raising fears of a higher current account and fiscal deficit. This will impact corporate earnings.
The BSE Sensex has been one of the top-performing areas of investment in the past 40 years, consistently delivering double-digit returns in rupee terms, beating assets such as global equities, precious metals, and fixed income.
A bewildered world is at a loss to find bilateral and multilateral measures to stop President Trump from pursuing his vision of a world unabashedly dominated by the United States, points out T P Sreenivasan.
This marks a rebound after more than two years of underperformance during a strong rally in smallcap stocks.
